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How Healthy Is the Labor Market, Really?

What’s the “official” unemployment rate vs. economic reality? In my analysis of the monthly jobs reports on the first Friday of the month, I make a statement similar to this: “The official unemployment rate is 5.0%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with […]

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Retail Sales vs. Consumer Confidence; Unwarranted Fed Faith in Wrong Surveys

Conference Board Consumer Survey The consumer conference board does a paper survey every month on consumer confidence. The board’s technical notes say (emphasis mine) “The targeted responding sample size – approximately 3,000 completed questionnaires – has remained essentially unchanged throughout the history of the CCI.” I called up the board with a simple question: How […]